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A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."